Simulated runoff under CSIRO Mk3 A2 (2070-2099 average) in millimeters for the Pacific Northwest, USA

For his MS thesis, Brendan Rogers used the vegetation model MC1 to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget and wild fire impacts across the western 2/3 of the states of Oregon and Washington using climate input data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, OSU) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain. The model was run from 1895 to 2100 assuming that nitrogen demand from the plants was always met so that the nitrogen concentrations in various plant parts never dropped below their minimum reported values. A CO2 enhancement effect increased productivity and water use efficiency as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased. Future climate change scenarios were generated through statistical downscaling from general circulation model output using anomalies and a climatology from the PRISM group at 30arc second spatial grain. Data came from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO Mk3, MIROC 3.2 medres, and Hadley CM 3), each run through three CO2 emission scenarios (SRES mild B1, moderate A1B, and warm and dry A2).